Baku. 8 April. REPORT.AZ/ Today the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic (CBAR) is somewhat accelerated soft devaluation of the national currency. As a result, the dollar rose sharply to 0.0021 AZN and reached 1,0517 AZN / USD. It should be noted that, this process began yesterday, on April 7 with the appreciation of the manat to 0.0009. Thus, over the past two days the dollar officially rose 0,003 manat, or by 0.3%.
Analytical Group of Report News Agency believes that, in the end soft devaluation may paralyze the economy, in which has an already tense situation. Reasons of a new devaluation remains unclear, this devaluation is in inverse ratio with the increase in the world market in recent days, oil prices to a level of 59 dollars per barrel. Priority for CBAR transition to a system of floating exchange rate will cause a sharp drop in GDP in Azerbaijan this year. For example, it's known that due to the continuing soft devaluation after shock by 34% devaluation of the manat, consumers and investors are in no hurry to part with their foreign exchange reserves to complete this process.
According to forecasts of Report News Agency, in this situation the official exchange rate of the dollar in 2015 in the best case will reach 1,50 AZN/USD. This is possible if oil prices above 50 USD per barrel. Otherwise inevitable rapid growth rate, "If the CBAR really move to a floating exchange rate system, while the fall in oil prices below 50 USD, the rate may reach 3-5 AZN/USD. However, if in Azerbaijan to continue manage the floating exchange rate policy, the Central Bank must will annually determine the target range of the course", analysts of the agency added.
Initial analysis shows that, this year's GDP is real, that's to say, in dollar rates, will decline. So, if in 2014 GDP amounted to 59 billion manats and 75 billion dollars, this year as a result of falling oil prices, and the recession of retail sales, weakening the construction sector, a sharp decline in automobile sales and other objective reasons are projected to decrease this number in nominal terms by 3%, in real terms - by 35-50%: "As it clear, going to take that risk, the Central Bank intends to maintain foreign exchange reserves of the country. The Central Bank wants to help banks facing problems as a result of exchange rate risk in the banking system."
Analytical Group of Report considers, soft devaluation is a wrong decision. The transition to a floating exchange rate system should be implemented in a short time. This decision will again revive the economy. Otherwise, economic paralysis will last a long time, that will cause a severe blow to small and medium entrepreneurs. Free course though harm small number of people, however, in general, will cause the economic recovery in a shorter period of time.